Nawaz Sharif’s Game Plan: Imposition of Martial Law

Almost all the TV channels nowadays are constantly discussing the scale of Nawaz Sharif’s rally to Lahore and its consequences. It is sad to note that not a single anchor or political analyst has been able to correctly analyse as to what exactly Nawaz Sharif is trying to do.

Anybody who thinks that Nawaz Sharif is intelligent is not worth arguing with. However, he is clever and cunning. He knows very well that he is never returning to power. His alternative plan to get his daughter Maryam Nawaz installed as his successor has also come across hurdles due to the Supreme Court’s order to file references against her as well, along with her two brothers.

If his brother, Shahbaz Sharif becomes the premier, power would remain within the larger Sharif family but would be wrestled from the claws of Nawaz Sharif’s own family. This is what he dreads and may not want. Many may not buy this argument but all they have to do in this respect is to look at the way the Saudi royal family habitually indulges in power plays of similar nature.

Nawaz Sharif and his party is popular particularly in Punjab’s rural areas but its victory is not assured in the present circumstances. Imran Khan’s PTI is strong in Punjab’s urban areas and is likely to give PMLn a tough fight in almost all the Punjab constituencies. Nawaz Sharif may not like Shahbaz Sharif becoming the prime minister but the last thing he may like to experience in his life time is to see Imran Khan becoming the premier; it would be a nightmare. It is thus a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. Nawaz Sharif cannot become the premier himself; he does not want Shahbaz Sharif to become one for reasons best known to himself and the last thing he wants is to see Imran Khan becoming one.

The status quo is not comforting either. In the current scenario, the review petition against the Supreme Court’s decision is certain to be dismissed particularly after the venom constantly being hurled against the judiciary in the past four days during the rally to Lahore. The NAB is ordered by the Supreme Court to file references against Nawaz Sharif and his children within 60 days and the accountability courts are directed to decide them within six months of filing. There is little chance of Nawaz Sharif and his children getting absolved by the accountability courts and they are likely to be ordered to be imprisoned. This is the last thing Nawaz Sharif ever wanted used to a luxurious way of life and then at this stage in life.

The only course of action to save himself and his family is to get the system wound up which can only be done if the army takes over. Elections will not be held and the possibility of Imran Khan or Shahbaz Sharif becoming the prime minister will not exist. The Supreme Court judgement against Nawaz Sharif will remain on the books but he can try to slip away from the country in the turmoil following a military coup, including making a deal as he did after General Musharaff took over in 1999. It would be the best possible deal under the circumstances as he would not have to face the humility of appearing before the accountability courts and the possibility of being imprisoned for the remaining days of his life. If he succeeds in making such an arrangement with the new military rulers or manage to leave the country otherwise, he would really have nothing to lose from this whole dreadful scenario and can continue to live the rest of life luxuriously in a comforting environment.

The country will suffer; democracy will yet again have a major set back; Nawaz Sharif’s own party may be destroyed in the process but Nawaz Sharif will come on top, claiming that democracy without him cannot succeed in Pakistan.